The Turkish army is protecting the secular state that was founded by Ataturk and has staged four military coups against civilian governments since 1960, the last of which toppled Islamic Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan in 1997. Brother Fahmi Huweidi and I were interviewing Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the inauguration of the Arabic-speaking Al Turkiye channel, while - between questions - I could not stop thinking about the ongoing confrontation between his government and the secular Turks supported by the army, wondering whether the prime minister will be able to achieve his goals or will meet the fate of his predecessors. My last question during the interview surfaced against the backdrop of my knowledge about the role of the Turkish army in political life. Erdogan chose to point to the constitutional amendments his government proposed in response to the conditions of the European Union to ensure the accession of Turkey to it, seeing how this is one of the goals of the current government. Erdogan's government came a long way to meet the membership prerequisites, thus bettering the climate of democracy in the country although those opposing it are saying it is a selective democracy because it has so far failed to include the rights of the minorities such as the Armenians, Christians and Alawites as it did with the Kurds whose demands were for the most part responded to. Turkey wants a full membership in the European Union but is facing the opposition of powerful European states. For their part, Germany and France prefer an exceptional partnership with Turkey without engaging in the details of what makes this partnership exceptional. Nonetheless, I feel that neither democracy nor the other conditions will thwart the efforts of the Turkish government, rather Cyprus, since the reunification of the island is hitting many obstacles and parliamentary elections will be held in it in weeks and may entail the victory of a nationalist candidate insisting on the independence of the Northern part and opposing the wishes of Ankara's government. This will definitely hinder the goal behind the membership. But what are the other goals of Erdogan's government? The Justice and Development Party won the 2002 elections when the term of parliament was of five years, before it was later amended to four years. It then won the 2007 elections and I believe it is highly likely that it will win the 2011 elections in light of its wide and striking popularity. Indeed, although the nationalists and the seculars may compete with it in the big cities such as Ankara and Istanbul, its popular base in the Anatolian countryside is stable, so as not to say prevalent. Moreover, the party is now benefitting from a strong economy which was struck by the global financial crisis at first, but was then handled by the party in a smart way, thus emerging from this crisis unharmed as the last quarter of last year witnessed a 6% increase in the gross national product. Without the help of a crystal ball, I believe that the Justice and Development Party will likely win the upcoming elections and that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will remain Prime Minister for the next two years or so. Afterwards, and this is how I perceive the situation: he will move to the presidency and President Abdullah Gul will become prime minister. The latter will then be followed at the head of the party and the Cabinet by Ahmet Davutoglu who is the rising star in Turkish politics and has surrounded himself with some of the best minds in Turkish political life, at a time when the entire party with its Islamic background is accused of appointing in the government people whom it trusts instead of people enjoying competence and of enjoying a secret agenda to annihilate the secular state. However, among the most important goals of the Turkish government is probably one which is not getting the media coverage it so deserves. It is a new strategy for the region which is being set up by Davutoglu who believes that the countries in the region are divided as though the Cold War was still ongoing, and is thus seeking the establishment of a regional order that would manage the region in accordance with its interests and based on a vision encompassing both Turkey and the Arab countries, and would gradually contain the role of Israel and that of Iran later on. There are bumps along the road, since although the strategy of the foreign minister reflects the heritage of the Islamic group, he is opposed by its symbols inside the party who prefer to deal with each other to the point where they would choose the supporters at the expense of the more qualified. As for the European position toward Turkey, it features a confirmed racism no matter how much the latter racism is wrapped with false excuses. The European Union includes states whose populations have aged and are over fifty, at a time when the majority of the Turks are young and needed by the European Union to ensure its rejuvenation. I then see the opposition of Turkey's youth and dare say it is because they are Muslims. Yet, I expect the Justice and Development Party to secure more successes and hope so because it is the Arabs' natural ally. On the other hand and luckily for Abdullah Gul, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ahmet Davutoglu and their companions, the nationalist and secular opposition in Turkey has aged like the Europeans and there are no real competitors in the face of the main figures of the Justice and Development Party in the near future. [email protected]
