The parliamentary elections in Iraq represent a pivotal moment: Will these elections help Iraq break free from sectarian politics, and pave the way for the arrival of statesmen in power, subsequent to failures in governance and security, not to mention financial corruption? Naturally, the petroleum policy in Iraq is in the forefront of such concerns, especially after the 2009 agreements between the government and 15 oil companies from 13 countries. In truth, these agreements are long-term service agreements that include ten contracts to support and improve production in some of the largest and most important oil fields in Iraq, (Rumaila, Majnoon and West Qurna). However, despite the importance of these contracts, the total number of developed and productive oil field in Iraq at present is almost 20 out of 60 discovered fields. No matter how different the estimates are about oil production rates in upcoming years, the truth is that the process of increasing production capacity has started; nonetheless, the question stands about whether this will capacity reach the targeted level (12 million barrels per day) at the end of the decade, as these companies pledged. The answer to this is not yet clear, but what is certain in this regard is that the production capacity will begin to rise next year, to about seven million barrels per day at the least, which in itself is a significant production level. The new parliament will be asked to cooperate with the government, to monitor its performance and to hold it accountable, particularly in what pertains to implementing the agreements and increasing the production capacity. Moreover, it is also important to establish the legal framework in place for the allocation of a high proportion of the oil revenues (approximately 200 billion dollars annually by the end of the decade, compared to about 70 billion dollars at present) for infrastructure projects and investments that would restore the strength of the economy in the country. The second issue that the parliament should assist the government with is achieving harmony between foreign policy and petroleum policy. For instance, a country like Iraq, which has almost no secure and significant access to the sea, cannot afford to have a state of schism between its petroleum policy (its main source of revenue) and its foreign policy, especially in terms of neighbouring countries where export pipelines must pass, or where common border oil fields exist. This is not to mention the neighbouring countries, which have close export ports, or the need to cooperate with other oil producing countries, especially OPEC member states, in order to assimilate Iraq's new production in a systematic and consistent manner in the global markets, without causing a deterioration in prices if possible. During the period, in which Iraq will become one of the top three oil producing countries worldwide, establishing good relations with neighbouring and oil producing countries is a must, in order to improve confidence in the Iraqi oil industry, and to make the markets able to rely on secure supplies from Iraq - a confidence that has been hitherto shaken by wars, the embargo and terrorist attacks. Any failure in achieving these goals will result in a lost opportunity of optimally exploiting the resources of the country. The main obstacle to the implementation of the huge oil contracts does not lie in the geological nature of Iraq, as the international companies would be operating in fields that are productive at present, and their primary task would be to increase production by ten percent annually (from approximately 2.5 million barrels per day to just about 12 million barrels per day by the end of this decade). Instead, the primary problem is the lack of security, and the extent at which this will influence or impede the companies' operations. For example, mortars were fired at a temporary company camp guarded by U.S forces in Basra last week, but no casualties were reported. Hence, the parties in the new parliament are required to assume their responsibilities and steer the country clear of the scourge of disputes and conflicts. In the meantime, the neighbouring countries are required to cooperate with Iraq to improve its economy, because this is also beneficial to these countries' exports to a market that is hungry for consumption and investment. One of the disputes regarding the oil agreements is centred on the extent, to which the companies awarded with the contracts can truly increase production to the record levels they have pledged. For instance, Shell pledged to increase the production capacity of the Majnoon field to about 1.8 million barrels per day, while most assessments indicate that it is possible to increase it to 1.2 million barrels only. The same applies to the Rumaila field, which currently produces 800 thousand barrels per day, as BP pledged to increase its capacity to about 2.8 million barrels per day. These elections then are a historic turning point, not only in terms of the identity of the country, but also in what regards the follow up of the significant oil agreements and their implementation. Iraq was forced to borrow around four billion dollars from the World Bank and the IMF, despite the fact that its oil revenues have exceeded 70 billion dollars. What matters, ultimately, is not to increase the production capacity, but rather, but to use the ensuing revenues in the development and modernization of the country. Until this moment, there does not seem to be a vision for the future in place, nor draft legislatures to divert a high proportion of the oil revenues to development and investment projects. *. Mr. Khadduri is an energy expert
