There is open talk about war in the Middle East. Many are certain that it is imminent and only wonder about its timing. Hence, the region is drowning in many scenarios. Many officials have turned into analysts. It is obvious that Arabs do not have the ability to prevent the slide towards the abyss. The decision of launching a war is not in their hands, and neither is the decision to prevent it. The beating of the drums of war does not necessarily imply its beginning. Nothing indicates that Barack Obama's administration wishes to wage a war against Iran. It is obvious that it is also not ready. That same administration is accused of applying Obama's promises to pullout from Iraq according to the announced timetable. The eruption of war could turn the US forces in Iraq into a target for attacks. It might force them to go back to fighting inside cities and villages. Also, the path of the war in Afghanistan does not allow Washington the luxury of opening a third front with Iran. America needs time to arrange its cards and spread its forces. It also needs to deplete all other means before resorting to its military machine. The war on Iran is not a pleasure trip. It must be pointed out here that America is not at its best these days. The prices of the global financial crisis were extremely high. The expenditures in Iraq were beyond what is reasonable. The US public opinion is not ready yet to accept another such adventure. Also, the international status is not ready either. Russia's acceptance of the idea of sanctions against Iran definitely does not imply the acceptance of an American war against it. China's stance is clear and known. Europe is also concerned by the sanctions and does not talk about war. It is also hard to believe that Iran will ignite the war. The result of the war is no secret to the Iranians themselves. External blows do not make a regime such as the Iranian regime collapse, but they will take an entire country several decades back. Iran cannot defeat the US if there is no US involvement by land. It can merely light up the region and cause great losses in it. When talking about war, we cannot forget oil, its passageways, and its prices. Israel cannot coexist with a nuclear Iran, as is asserted by the Israeli officials. They also say that Israel will act alone if the world makes the mistake of lagging or hesitating. However, this scenario does not seem to be an easy one. A war is not merely defined by a first strike. Israel will rapidly need US participation or broad US support. It is hard to believe that Israel can drag America into war in this manner. There are other difficulties in the face of the Israeli war on Iran. Attacking the Iranian nuclear positions would also imply a clash with Hezbollah's arsenal in Lebanon. Any attempt to crush Hezbollah by land could imply a direct clash with Syria. Moreover, the Gaza front might not remain calm either. The war on Lebanon is no longer a pleasure trip after the July war. It is also hard to believe that Hezbollah could launch a war. Israel's repeated threats to the Lebanese government portend unusual dangers. Israel cannot uproot Hezbollah, but it can wreak great damage on Lebanon and make Hezbollah drown in the repercussions of these losses. Nothing can guarantee that the war will remain within the borders of its first arena. It is hard for Hezbollah to take the decision alone. Hence, it is improbable that Hezbollah will launch this war or will give the enemy a pretext for launching it. Some Middle Eastern capitals are drowning in war scenarios. However, the beating of the drums of war does not imply that it has become imminent. More than any time before, everyone is aware that war is not a pleasure trip.
