Hillary Clinton arrived in Paris to discuss new sanctions on Iran with French President Nicholas Sarkozy. France chairs the United Nations Security Council this month, and the White House and its European allies are determined to urge China and Russia to go to the Security Council to come up with stronger international sanctions on the Iranian regime. Paris is convinced that Iran is producing a nuclear bomb and President Sarkozy is very worried about an Israeli response, in the form of striking Iran, and about the consequences for the region. He is saying this to everyone who visits him, and this includes Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Syrian President Bashar Assad. Sarkozy realizes that any Israeli strike against Iran will ignite the region, because the Iranian regime has several cards it can use. There is Lebanon, where its number one ally Hizbullah can respond to such a strike, while the Palestinian Hamas movement has promised, via its leader Khaled Meshaal during a visit to Saudi Arabia, that his group would distance itself from Iran and return to the Arab fold. However, the Iranian regime is behaving like the then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, when he challenged the entire world. But it is using cards in the region while Hussein lacked such instruments. The Obama administration does not want an Israeli strike against Iran because it realizes what it will bring in its wake. Oil prices will rise to levels that have a negative impact on the world economy and the return of growth in the United States. Moreover, an Israeli strike against Iran could weaken the Iranian opposition, even if it is from within the regime. It will also have an impact on public opinion in the region, from Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. This is what the White House does not want; thus, it is working with its allies in Europe to reassure Israel that sanctions against Iran will be strengthened, while it will also boost its forces in the Gulf, from Qatar and Bahrain to the UAE. The White House will also tell its ally Israel that it must avoid taking such a step, and instead enter negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. However, the Obama administration's chances of success in bringing together the PA and the Israeli government are low, despite the American president's commitment. The situation in the US is forcing Obama to protect his alliance with Israel in the region; it is forcing him to avoid a dispute with Netanyahu by using pressure that the Israeli ally rejects from President Obama. The situation in the region is complicated due to Iranian behavior, and the sanctions on regime figures will not have a big impact. The international community is searching for sanctions on individuals, and not people, which is silly since the Iranian regime always uses its people in confronting the world. The economic situation in Iran, according to international institutions, is very poor. There is high inflation and frightening levels of unemployment among young people, along with bank failures. The regime remains unconcerned, as it continues to confront the world and use its cards in Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen. France is working diplomatically with the US to secure nine votes in the Security Council for new sanctions on Iran. The question here is: will the international community succeed in this mission, which is better than a potential Israeli military strike on Iran? Some diplomats say that Israel will sooner or later strike the Iranian nuclear locations despite the repercussions this would entail on the world. Clinton informed the French that the White House is determined to continue with attempts at dialogue with Iran on other issues, and that the nuclear issue requires international determination and strong sanctions, while Obama wants to discuss other matters. We quickly discover that Obama is unable to separate the nuclear issue from other items, and that he will be forced to abandon this policy, since accredited diplomats in Iran know that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei does not want any dialogue or any ties with the US. The confrontation will continue and the Iranian people will remain a hostage of this confrontation, unless there are developments with the domestic opposition. According to Iranian and foreign observers, the opposition continues, despite the repression. Will it be able to alter this fear and intimidation of a people as it takes to the streets to demonstrate? Only time will tell if the Iranian opposition, which is from within the regime, will expand and organize itself so that it has a head. The Iranian situation today is a topic of concern for the entire world.
